Msia's Policy Makers Wake Up To Economic Realities

The IMF projects Malaysia's GDP to contract by 3.5% this year compared to the Malaysian government's forecast of -1% and +1%. Meanwhile, IMF's forecast for Sinagpore is -10%, which is in line with Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew's comments a month ago.

Thus, PM Najb's move to remove the 30% bumiputra equity requirement in 27 sub-services sector (Computer & Related, Health & Social, Tourism, Transport, Sport & Recreational and Business Services) is commendable and marks a first step towards real economic reform for the country.

Removing the NEP policy and the political agenda behind it is essential. But what is more essential for bloggers/the media and the public to understand is that distribution of human and financial resources based on race is economically most wasteful and greatest disincentive for economic wealth-building (as opposed to wealth hoarding by the privileged few).

Allocating economic resources based on race/class(Marxism)/religion/or any other superficial feature is a guarantee for economic inefficiency and waste. There are huge opportunity costs (RM140 billions or 20% of annual GDP?) that Malaysia's affirmative action policies (as distinct from but not unrelated to cronysm) have incurred.

So Najib's move should spark a fresh wave of analysis why Malaysian policymakers need to recognise the absurdity and stupidity of economic disincentives and to allocate its resources in the market efficient way. Everyone benefits from a bigger pie.

A Mighty Nation In The Making: Part II

There have been some post-election analyses commenting about the risky strategy of Msian Chinese voters in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang in supporting PAS and attending PAS ceramahs.

Chinese Malaysians are not naïve with regards to PAS's Islamic state aspirations. We have all along known their long term objectives. But if PAS changes its pro-multiracial colours after helping PR to be the next government, then it would destabilise the government because Malaysian voters can always vote them out.

The common glue that holds the Pakatan together is the anti-corruption, anti-injustice agenda. And what is most tragic about BN/UMNO is their blatant lack of shame in the face of corruption and money politics (albeit Msia is ranked 7th in terms of corruption).

This lack of honour and fair play is totally unacceptable in Asian cultures. The advent of the Internet media and bloggers has opened the eyes of Msians, esp the younger generation regardless of race and religion.

So I conclude that the PR victories in the two states are not a victory for Islamic interests but a victory for all Malaysians.

A Beautiful & Mighty Nation In The Making

God works in unknown ways. Deep in my heart, I wish that PR will win the three seats (Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang and Batang Ai) in the by-elections tomorrow.

What is God’s plan for Malaysia under the new PM Najib? Will he be under pressure to reform or maintain a tight grip on the status quo?

Tonight, I’ll pray that the the best party with the best leaders will win in line with God’s future plan for this beautiful and mighty nation.

Malaysia is beautiful because it is the nation beloved by God for its racial harmony despite government-sponsored racism. It is mighty because the dramatic political upheavals and elections in the past year have been broadly peaceful with no bloodshed.

7th April, Tuesday: Whichever way the by-elections go today, I think PM Najib will surprise on the positive as far as incremental reforms are concerned.

If BN wins two out of the three seats (Bukit Gantang most likely will be won by PAS/PR), it would increase the people's anger more if BN sees the victories as an endorsement to be as corrupt and oppressive as before. So the PM will likely make some reforms to placate the middle ground, the most important challenge being the revamp/removal of the NEP stigma on the nation.

On the other hand, if PR wins all three of the seats, the PM will be under more pressure to reform BN internally, which is also good.

Either way, the stock market is riding a global bear market rally and should retrace later when the focus is back to a contracting economy.

Painting by Iranian artist Kamrooz Aram.

How God & Man Can Change Malaysia's Destiny

For many months since the political earthquake of 8th March 2008, I, as an ordinary citizen, have been praying and seeking solutions to Malaysia's seemingly intractable economic and political problems.

Why should I care if not for the fact that I love this beautiful country where I spent many wonderful teenage years and where my children will be growing up.

Presently, the problems we face seem insurmountable at this stage when a new Prime Minister will be taking over the government, the Opposition is facing fresh hurdles and the economy is sliding into possibly its worst recession.

Einstein once said that given an hour to solve a problem, he would spend 55 minutes understanding (or defining) the problem first and the last 5 minutes solving it.

Dr Aiko Hormann, a Christian minister of God and a former Artificial Intelligence scientist with NASA, revealed in her remarkable interviews (with "Its a New Day") that the way for us to resolve difficult problems (financial, health, emotional, spiritual) is to move into God's perspective and declare God's promises over the present situation despite the adverse circumstances.

In doing so (and we need to be sincere in our motives which is to glorify God), God will actually bring about a change in our external circumstances to be in line with our spiritual state of being (which is a joyous praise and thanksgiving to Him who has already done the finished work of healing, of freedom from poverty, of freedom from anger, hate, bitterness, etc.)

She reveals that the two hindrances that keep us from instantly seeing the power of God work in us is (a) to be distracted by the physical sensations of our present and (b) not being able to "see" from God's time perspective of the past-present-future.

In other words, humanity is always attempting with little success in moving from point A (the present with all the harsh realities) to point Z, where all our problems are gone.

Rather than dwell in A, God wants us to be spiritually and mentally be in the future time zone of Z, where all His work is accomplished just as Jesus Christ finished the work of our redemption with His death on the cross two thousand years ago.

How does all this relate to Malaysia's current problems? Well, I believe Christians as well as non-Christians should take a different perspective of this country, where its future lies according to God's plan and not according to our ideals or visions.

And the important point is not to despair or be discouraged by what we see in the physical realm (no, YB Lim Kit Siang, we are not entering a dark age) but instead be joyful and strong in nurturing a victor's perspective and mentality (not a victim's pessimism). Why? Because this is the kind of spiritual partnership with God that will work real miracles in this country.

No man can defeat the problems we face or heal a divided nation. Only when we begin to see how small, how insignificant these problems are, do we see from God's eternal perspective.

Postscript: Whether Malaysia will see its problems fixed overnight or in three or four years time depends on how we submit to God's guidance and solutions. Dr Hormann did say that sometimes, the victory is delayed so that our faith will be tested and emerge stronger after we go through difficult times.

6 Ways To Ascertain The Truth of the Bible

It has never been my contention that spiritual truths can be proven with the scientific precision with which we prove physical truths such as the law of gravity. But the inability to conduct a laboratory experiment on a moral or religious issue is by no means proof that the issue can never be verified.

In fact, if we use a scientific, empirical mindset to understand the law of divine justice in human affairs, we can see that certain spiritual truths or laws will always be immutable (not susceptible to change).

One such truth is the law of sowing what we reap. For instance, if we spend time thinking and planning on how to be rich to the exclusion of every sensible responsibility, then we shall one day pay the price in either making a bad investment decision or in breaking the civil law.

Nonetheless, the existence of God is something which cannot be proven by reason alone. As the philosopher Dr Charles Taylor said: "This (religious belief) is something that you cannot ultimately prove except by impressing people with the fact that you have a more intelligent interpretation all the time."

Conversely, the non-existence of God (or the idea of a world without a creator) can be proven to be irrational. No man, who is a being of sensible reason, emotions and limited intelligence, can ever honestly admit to living happily in a state of uncertainty about his after-life. He may have theories or beliefs about what could happen to him after death, but his endeavours to resolve this sudden unknown event will be a measure of the meaning of his life.

When various religions proclaim that there is life after death and describe the different worlds that exist in the after-life, there seems to be no way of proving which religion is right or whether they are all fanciful stories.

The objective social scientist can conduct an experiment and that is to investigate and interview people who have apparently died physically and then returned from the after-life to tell their experiences.

As a practising Christian (who was formerly an atheist, then an agnostic and just before becoming a Christian, a Buddhist), I am convicted of the truth of the Bible as the Word of God. But looking at the Bible from the non-Christian and skeptical perspective, I think there are 6 ways to ascertain its truthfulness. These ways are the weight of evidence in support of the truth of the Bible:

1. The Historical - the main historical person in the New Testament is the person of Jesus Christ whose words, deeds and teachings were described in the eye witness testimonies of the four Gospels, written in the first century. Apart from the Bible, there are historical records that verify he existed and was borned at the time cited in the Bible.

Charles Guignebert, Professor of the History of Christianity, at the Sorbonne, maintained that the "conclusions which are justified by the documentary evidence [concerning the life of Jesus] may be summed up as follows: Jesus was born somewhere in Galilee in the time of the Emperor Augustus, of a humble family, which included half a dozen or more children besides himself." He adds elsewhere "there is no reason to suppose he was not executed".

There is a passage from a 10th century Arab historian named Agapius of Manbij who was a Christian. He cites Flavius Josephus (c. 37–c. 100), a Jewish and Roman historian, as having written:

At this time there was a wise man who was called Jesus. And his conduct was good, and (he) was known to be virtuous and many people from among the Jews and the other nations became his disciples. Pilate condemned him to be crucified and to die. And those who had become his disciples did not desert his discipleship. They reported that he had appeared to them three days after his crucifixion and that he was alive; accordingly, he was perhaps the Messiah concerning whom the prophets have recounted wonders.

The text from which Agapius quotes is viewed by historians as closer to what Josephus wrote about Jesus.

(For skeptics who say there is no proof of his resurrection after three days being dead, read this article.)

2. The Archaeological: In the last 150 years, archaeologists have excavated thousands of sites in the Near East, many of whom have tried to disprove the historical records of the Old Testament. Yet, every time they turned their spades, the new evidence confirms what the Bible says.

For example the Old Testament mentions all the kings of Israel and Judah in addition to 47 other kings in the Gentile (non-Jewish) world of Egypt/Babylon/ Syria/Greece. Not a single history book mentioned even one of them. The archaeologists found in their sites every one of the 47 kings exactly in the places where the Bible said they had reigned.

3. The Sensible Insurance Policy: Pascal's Wager (or Pascal's Gambit) is a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that even though the existence of God cannot be determined through reason, a person should "wager" as though God exists, because so living has everything to gain, and nothing to lose.

We only have two things to stake, our "reason" and our "happiness". Pascal considers that there is "equal risk of loss and gain", a coin toss, since human reason is powerless to address the question of God's existence. That being the case, we then must decide it according to our happiness by weighing the gain and loss in believing that God exists. He contends the wise decision is to wager that God exists, since "If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing", meaning one can gain eternal life if God exists, but if not, one will be no worse off in death than if one had not believed.

(Note that although he was a Christian, Pascal's wager does not necessarily point to a Christian God but to the belief in one God - theism - which is shared by Judaism and Islam).

4. The Scientific: Empirical science is catching up with the Bible as neuroscientists explore the seemingly unexplainable power of prayer and meditation. Increasingly, the miracles of Christians praying for the sick and healing them of a wide range of illnesses (cancer, deafness, physical deformities, etc) are being recorded on the Internet and have been confirmed by secular doctors who have tested these patients before and after the prayers of healing. Just because today's science may not yet have full explanations of how the cures occurred does not at all invalidate the efficacy of prayer, which the scientific mind will be open to explore.

There are even many testimonies of people who have died and were taken to witness Heaven and Hell before coming back alive.

These experiences and testimonies are hard, but not impossible, to verify scientifically but there will be a day when tests can be made to see if these people are hallucinating or lying. (To those who explain that healing may be due to the power of the mind over matter, then they should examine how ineffective is healing through new age methods.)

5. The Psychological: There is insurmountable evidence throughout history of the positive, inspirational impact of the Bible on the lives of great politicians (George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, William Wilberforce, etc), writers and playwrights (Dante, William Shakespeare, John Milton, Dostoevsky, Charles Dickens,etc) scientists (Kepler, Galileo, Newton, Morse, etc) and social workers (Florence Nightingale, David Livingstone, Mother Theresa, etc) to name a few.

These are men and women of great intelligence whose works have transcended their cultural eras and historical circumstances. Can these people of character and genius who have done so much good for the world and whose good deeds have benefited our present society, be irrational and easily converted by "a fanciful, superstitious book that can only be believed by fools?" Think again with wisdom and care.

6. The Fulfilled Prophecies: Finally, the most powerful feature of the Bible is the fulfilled prophecies about Jesus Christ decades before he was borned. There are 333 prophecies concerning the coming of the Messiah Christ and these predictions include the exact date of his birth, the place of birth (Micah 5:2 -Bethlehem), that he would be borned of a virgin (Isaiah 7:14) . These predictions in the Old Testament also describe his character, his betrayal for thirty pieces of silver, his burial in the grave of a rich man, his resurrection from the dead and ascension into heaven. All of which were fulfilled and described in the New Testament.

There is no individual in the history of mankind nor any other religious texts that has been so prophetically and predictively detailed.

To those who are still skeptical despite the 6 peripheral ways of ascertaining the truth of the Bible (note I did not say that reason alone can be used to confirm the Bible's truth), then I will paraphrase the English writer C.S. Lewis who said that even if Jesus was a myth, it would be a myth worth living for. From my personal experience, I testify that Jesus Christ is not a myth but the only living truth that can help man redeem himself from the darkness of his savage and corrupted nature.

And the Good News of the Bible is encapsulated in this foundational verse 1 John 16: "For God so loved the world that He gave His only Son, that whosoever believe in Him (His Son) shall not perish but have eternal life."

Editor's comment: Far be it for me to suggest that the existence of God can be tested as this would be a mark of distrust and irreverence. Rather, I am simply showing to skeptics and atheists the tremendous weight of evidence, through 6 different perspectives, concerning the truth of the Bible, which offers a unique and more intelligent, if not the only, interpretation of the meaning of our purpose and life on earth.

Perak Crisis Snowballs In Favour of Perakians

Thank God I was prophetically discerning when I wrote on 4 Feb, the eve of changes in the state government in Perak:

"Today, God may allow the devious cross-over and reverse takeover of the Perak state government by BN for one very good reason: the whole population of Perak and the country will start to see how unethical and undemocratic is the BN in trying to gain power.

Let them win the war of cross-overs but they will definitely lose the battle for the hearts and minds of the voters."

The daily drama (or comedy?) of events in Perak since the day BN declared themselves the "new government" of Perak continues to show to the nation and the world that the people of Perak are the true victims of an unethical, unconstitutional grab for power at all costs.

The good news is that this crisis is turning into an avalanche of sympathy for the people of Perak as long as they are denied a snap election to elect the state government.

So I wonder why the bloggers, lawyers and media commentators are so exasperated and demoralised by the Perak political crisis. Whatever use of force (ISA or emergency rule) that the BN comes up with in desperation to assert its rule of Perak, the outside world is watching with bemusement.

All's well that ends well and the end of Be End is coming soon if it continues in its present path.

http://jeremiahliang.blogspot.com/2009/02/battle-for-hearts-minds-of-perak-is.html

http://jeremiahliang.blogspot.com/2009/02/lessons-to-be-learned-from-perak-crisis.html

Postcript: I call on all Malaysians to pray for Perak, the state of grace, that the Lord will fight the battle for this state amidst the current turmoil it is going through and open the way for justice, righteousness and the rule of our constitution to prevail.

Roots & Solutions to The Middle East Conflict

The Israel-Arab/Palestinian crisis is a very complex problem that poses the biggest risk of a geopolitical war. However, I disagree with the various naive proposals offered by many people across the blogs who say that the solution is to reduce the power of the extremists from both sides, ignore the religious perspectives, talk peace and disarm.

What we are dealing here is a political conflict that emanates from an ancient family trauma (the rejection of the surrogate son and the concubine wife from the Abraham family) which, over the centuries, manifested into controversial texts that incite warmongering against the other half-blood tribe.

Nonetheless, there are several ways to approach the problem and achieve a real solution. A complicated problem requires a complicated analysis from various perspectives with a simple but profound solution.

1. Reexamine the simplicity of the political solution: a two-state solution simply requires that each state recognises and respects the existence of the other. All other tactics to obstruct the recognition of this fundamental right of existence reflects an indirect denial of real peace. For example, if Singapore/Indonesia refuses to recognise Malaysia as a legitimate country and threatens to wipe it off the sea, why bother talking about a truce or lasting peace with them? Wiser to prepare secretly for the coming attack.

2.The diplomatic solution is now offered by President Barack Hussein Obama. He is likely to convince Iran and all the proxy elements of the Arab world to lay down their arms for peace. But this peace won’t hold because it is merely diplomacy laced with great rhetoric from an ambitious world leader. Read his inaugural speech:

“To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”

This means a voluntary disarmament which will eventually be a prelude to rearmament. An unclenched fist can easily become clenched with a nuclear bomb later on.

3. On the question of who is right or wrong. I suggest we heed Jesus’s advice to judge a tree by its fruits. How many Jewish and Arab friends do we personally know from both sides of the issue to be able to know the truth of their lives in this region?

We should learn to see the problems of the Middle East from the perspective of a Martian who has no vested interest. Which party in this conflict is unreasonable, barbaric, illogical and religiously extremist? By their acts and their behaviour, you shall know the wolf behind the sheep.

Maybe, the Martian will conclude that both parties are equally guilty. But ask him further, show him the history of this conflict which extends to Abraham’s relationship with his two sons Isaac and Ishmael and you may arrive at a truly objective view.

4. The spiritual solution is the most effective one: both the Arabs and the Israelis must look deep into their intertwined past as half-brothers and truly repent of their hate crimes and forgive each other.

They must be made to see that the alternative is more bloodshed and perhaps a geopolitical war. Just remember that the last world war was tainted by the tragedy of the Holocaust (the genocide where about six million European Jews died.)

Unfortunately, human nature can only learn to repent after a great tragedy has happened. And the tragedy of lost lives stemming from the wars fought between Israel and the Arabs since the formation of the former on May 14, 1948 is perhaps not sufficiently painful for sane, citizens of the world to turn their backs on the insanity of war and the drive for political power in the Middle East.

Is The Hedgehog or the Fox The Best Leader For Msia?

Now with the latest Perak crisis, doubts are emerging about Anwar's effectiveness as the opposition leader. However, the mystery of who is the real Anwar should be analysed from the fox and the hedgehog context.

Philosopher and historian Isaiah Berlin said that foxes know many cunning tricks to survive while hedgehogs know only one single thing.

My instincts indicate that Anwar pretends to be a fox who can fix many of M'sia's social and economic challenges. However, he may actually be a hedgehog with only one real talent: Is it his oratory skills? His ability to hold the PAS-DAP dichotomy together or his anti-NEP and anti-corruption principles (which very few Malays have the intellectual bravery to champion)?

For most M'sians, all they want to see is a shadow cabinet, sound economic policies and a new set of values that will unite the secular and the non-secular sentiments of the citizens.

Since the former Premier Tun Mahathir, who seemed to be more of a fox than a hedgehog, failed to move the country out of its handicaps, the public may now clamour for a hedgehog-type of leader, a man of integrity and vision who only knows how to carry out one great idea that will solve many of the country's problems.

Abraham Lincoln's hedgehog genius was to liberate America from the scourge of slavery at the cost of civil war. I guess Barack Obama's hedgehog idea is to do the opposite: promote world peace at the cost of making diplomatic alliances with despotic regimes. ("To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.")

In others words, a false world peace today to postpone the real world war that is looming at the periphery of the global financial meltdown.

Lessons To be Learned From Perak Crisis-Malaysiakini

Now that the full consequences of party-hopping and cross-overs have been reaped for every Malaysian to see, let us re-examine three simple lessons we can learn from this crisis:

1. If party hopping followed by snap elections is justified as an unjust means to a fair end, then there will be no end to party hopping, what more when vast amounts of money is offered under the table. (Anwar, pls take note, you are at an economic disadvantage in this respect).

2. Now that both BN (sin by commission) and Pakatan Rakyat (sin by temptation) have created this political mess, it is the honourable thing for both Anwar/PR leaders and Najib to outlaw party hopping. But first, to regain his credibility with the voters, Najib should call a snap election soon in Perak to make amends for the unfairness with which the Perak people are subjected to. That way, he will be doing what Anwar actually promised, cross over and give back the mandate to the electorate.

3. Politics is often dirty and devoid of ethics. Whoever has more influence on the rules of the game (the courts of law) has a stronger hand. But the spectators, i.e voters have an active role to play in giving the weaker opposition a stronger hand. They can either walk out in protest or continue watching the drama between the two foes. If the civil rights activists and bloggers had debated thoroughly the issue of cross-overs and not given blanket approval to Anwar's 916 tactics, they would have seen its dangers, both ethical and political.

Aside from Pakatan Rakyat's greatest political weapon of being anti-NEP and anti-corruption, what was sorely lacking was the lack of a shadow cabinet, concrete policies for the economy and a new set of values to unite a multi-ethnic people.

So the blame for the current Perak crisis should be shared with Malaysia's intellectuals, bloggers and silent citizens.

Read Karim Raslan's take: "Trouble in Perak."

The Battle for The Hearts & Minds of Voters Is Lost For BN-Malaysiakini

We, Malaysians who care for democracy and clean governance, must all look at this setback for Pakatan Rakyat in Perak positively and creatively.

Do not lose hope for Malaysia because God has a greater plan beyond the obvious cat and mouse game.

Look at the irony of the situation: The unethical cross-over planned by Anwar failed last September.

Today, God may allow the devious cross-over and reverse takeover of the Perak state government by BN for one very good reason: the whole population of Perak and the country will start to see how unethical and undemocratic is the BN in trying to gain power. (This view is gaining ground. Read Tengku Razaleigh's latest comments).

Let them win the war of cross-overs but they will definitely lose the battle for the hearts and minds of the voters.

(I see that many blog commentators have vented their anger on the ex-DAP assembly lady. To paraphrase an old but true saying: when we forgive someone, we are pouring water on the hot coals burning over their heads. The power to change Malaysia’s despicable politics lies in forgiving our enemies. Likewise, those who curse Ms Hee fall into the same trap of hate and bitterness that divides our nation. Change begins in our hearts no matter what colour, political party or faith.)

Prediction For 2009

The year 2009 began with a crucial war (Israel-Hamas Palestine) while the whole world is focused on the global and financial economic crisis. The surprise for the year ahead may be a major political event linked to the Israel-Palestine crisis while the economic arena may take a back seat with a boring but predictable recession hitting most developed nations.

The same reversal of human expectations occurred at the start of 2008. People were worried about the subprime crisis but not too worried to cash out all their investments. The US election took centre stage and ended predictably with Obama's win against mediocre contenders. However, the financial markets saw a blow-out with the biggest losses since the 1930s Depression.

Same thing happened in Malaysia with the country suddenly turning its attention on the political tsunami post the March 2008 election. People, including myself, were transfixed by Anwar's takeover attempts and counter-tactics by BN. Then, the unexpected crash came in September after the Beijing Olympics.

This year, what most investors are worried about may turn out to be less severe than their worst scenarios. However, global political developments may shape up to be a major Black Swan event, unpredictable and having a major impact on financial markets.

These are my thoughts which I will continue to pursue. So if you wish to see ahead, don't look in the rear view mirror (a tumultuous 2008) but look ahead and above the skies for a different kind of tsunami.

Dostoyevskian Wisdom In Malaysia's Midnight Hour

Malaysians from all walks of life will benefit tremendously from reading the Russian writer Dostoyevski's writings and understanding his worldview. For me, he alone of all writers, apart from the writer of the book of Ecclesiastes in the Bible, has so clearly seen the truth of the human heart and the daily battle that rages in the soul of man.

The battle that matters most to Dostoyevski is the spiritual battle of wrong ideas that has infected modern man and led to the destruction of his faith in God. Through pride, we become convinced that we, alone, hold the keys to our destiny and are able to plan a bright future for our fellow citizens and children.

And in the present global economic and financial crisis where governments are taking control over banks and trying to steer financial markets from chaos, I believe we are seeing the beginnings of the building of a new tower of Babel from the ashes of the financial crisis. I may be wrong about the timing but it is only an issue between the next two or five years that the world's government and financial system will change drastically.

Still I have hope and that hope rests on our decisions, the daily focus of our thoughts and prayers. Even a mere citizen of Malaysia, small as we are, can make a difference to the world we live in by thinking profound and measured thoughts based on clear insights into human nature.

On rereading "Notes from the Underground", I found that the following passages speak much more truth to me than today's predictable social-political commentaries in the blogs, MSM and international news magazines:

1. On politicians and leading economic advisers who have continued to mistake the symptoms for the cause (one clear example is to define inflation as rising prices instead of rising money supply in excess of sustainable economic growth), Dostoyevski, through the notes of the Underground Man, says:

"All "direct" persons and men of action are active just because they are stupid and limited. How explain that? I will tell you: in consequence of their limitation they take immediate and secondary causes for primary ones, and in that way persuade themselves more quickly and easily than other people do that they have found an infallible foundation for their activity, and their minds are at ease and you know that is the chief thing."

2. On the intellectual limitations of Malaysia's civil-rights activists (anti-ISA vigil's notwithstanding) and the well-intentioned idealism of Malaysia's bloggers:

"Oh, gentlemen, do you know, perhaps I consider myself an intelligent man, only because all my life I have been able neither to begin nor to finish anything. Granted I am a babbler, a harmless vexatious babbler, like all of us. But what is to be done if the direct and sole vocation of every intelligent man is babble, that is, the intentional pouring of water through a sieve?"

My interpretation of this is that an intelligent man seldom begins his intellectual analysis on the right footing or completes the logical flow of his ideas. Much like many intellectuals today who see the world through rose-tinted or grey-tinted glasses, depending on their temperaments.

3. On our entertainment and food-centric civilisation and the coming new world order of humanism:

"The only gain of civilisation for mankind is the greater capacity for a variety of sensations--and absolutely nothing more."

4. On the limitations of reason and human nature:

"Reason only knows what it has succeeded in learning (some things, perhaps, it will never learn; this is a poor comfort, but why not say so frankly?) and human nature acts as a whole, with everything that is in it, consciously or unconsciously, and, even if it goes wrong, it lives."

Finally, this is the passage that encapsulates the universal problem of freedom of choice and man's inclination for evil actions for the sake of exercising his moral freedom:

"Now I ask you: what can be expected of man since he is a being endowed with strange qualities? Shower upon him every earthly blessing, drown him in a sea of happiness, so that nothing but bubbles of bliss can be seen on the surface; give him economic prosperity, such that he should have nothing else to do but sleep, eat cakes and busy himself with the continuation of his species, and even then out of sheer ingratitude, sheer spite, man would play you some nasty trick. He would even risk his cakes and would deliberately desire the most fatal rubbish, the most uneconomical absurdity, simply to introduce into all this positive good sense his fatal fantastic element. It is just his fantastic dreams, his vulgar folly that he will desire to retain, simply in order to prove to himself--as though that were so necessary--that men still are men and not the keys of a piano, which the laws of nature threaten to control so completely that soon one will be able to desire nothing but by the calendar."

Here is the tragedy and dilemma of man: faced with the logic (as precise and engineered as a piano key) of civilised morality that dictates he should only do the right thing, he makes the choice to do the wrong thing just to exercise his sense of power; the God-given freedom of choice he is entitled to as a free moral being.

Can Governments Avert A Global Armageddon?

While I had taken a long break from blogging with the arrival of my beautiful baby girl, many momentous things have also occurred outside the tranquility of my home.

It appears that the partial nationalisation of the banking system in the U.S. and parts of Europe following the pioneering rescue plan of British Premier Gordon Brown has saved the world from a major economic and financial meltdown. Brown's £500 billion plan includes £50 billion to recapitalise banks and accounts for up to one third of Britain's GDP.

This year, regional stock markets around the world have fallen by 40-50% with Malaysia apparently outperforming with one of the lowest decline of 40.9%, more by default than on its own merit. If this is not a financial meltdown then what else can be called a meltdown? Jim Rogers says these type of market crashes occur only 8 times in a 100 years. That is a probability of 8% with a collateral damage of 50%. However, Naseem Taleb thinks that worse case scenarios may have higher probabilities than we wish to think because stock markets do not follow the bell curve's distribution.

Today, stock markets have cheered the end of the U.S. election with the appointment of America's first black President. Is Barack Obama likely to rescue America out of its economic malaise? Or will he be another Herbert Hoover who succumbed to the folly of government thinking by raising taxes, tariff barriers and worsened the Great Depression of 1929-1933?

Here are some very insightful articles I read today that will shed some light on the current economic crisis. One is by Paul Wilmott, a finance lecturer and the other by Dr Arthur Laffer, the supply side economist who created the Laffer curve.

With half of the world going into recession (U.S. and Europe) in 2009, can Asia withstand the slowdown? To answer this question, we need to understand that the underlying drivers of robust global economic growth in the 2003-2007 period was caused by the housing bubble and credit bubble that started in the US and spread throughout Europe. This asset-fueled consumption growth was the driver of economic growth in export-based economies of Asia and emerging economies. So the big economic question is how much will we be affected in Asia? Will Asia be strong enough to withstand the coming storms of banking collapses in the West?

Before I share more thoughts on Malaysia's economic and political outlook in 2009, I would like to say that recessions are very good for economies as long as governments allow economies to reduce their excesses, reduce fat and be more efficient.

Like Japan in the 1990s, the U.S. is doing the opposite of sound economics by bailing out the speculators of Wall Street and taking money from healthy tax payers to pay for the mistakes of foolish tax payers with unmanageable housing loans.

Overcoming The Enemy's Political Tactics Against The Christian Family

The enemy (the principalities that covertly try to manipulate our thoughts) uses the same political tactics that Malaysia’s political parties use in maintaining their stronghold over ignorant, uneducated and emotionally vulnerable citizens.

These are 3 most common tactics used by the enemy in its current attempts to destroy the family and the country:

1. Divide and Rule: By creating division between the spouses, the enemy has gained a foothold. One tactic to create division is for third parties to take sides in any domestic issues, however small or big. Another tactic is to use an imaginary or real scapegoat, someone who can easily be blamed for creating problems. [Racist politicians still feel that the best way to appeal to their own own racial support group is to make the other race look like the external threat to their prosperity and security.]

2. Reality Denial Mentality: By constantly denying the truth about a person or the person’s environment, the enemy uses this tactic to blind the person about the truth and hence prepare the person for a shock when the facts continue to contradict the person’s misleading perception of the truth. [Politicians often exaggerate about the economic outlook, either it is too rosy from the ruling government’s viewpoint or too bleak from the opposition’s viewpoint. Many politicans lie about race-based economic policies that mislead people into thinking that these policies are ethical.]

3. Subvert the Authority of the Father: In the Christian tradition which is supported by Biblical scripture, the father is the servant leader who helps his family to serve God and who makes sacrifices for his family. He is to love his wife as his wife is to submit to him. Changing or distorting this role by giving the wife more grounds to take the lead in family matters of finance, children's upbringing or religious values is against the tradition of the Christian family (unless the husband is a philanderer or unwilling to lead). [Politicians show little respect for the King, the PM and rival MPs, forgetting that these people are annointed by God and elected by the people's votes.]

While both husband and wife are to be willing partners in managing the family’s affairs, neither party should try to go against the will of the other. At the end of any disagreement, there must be a consensus built around mutual respect. The same role model is practised in all other traditions. The enemy tries to destroy the father’s mandate and credibility by whispering lies about the husband and making her question his ability or authority.

These three types of attacks against the Christian marriage and family can be nullified and revoked by spiritual prayer as well as:

(1) Appealing to the reason and good faith of the spouse in seeing that the enemy is the external threat and not the spouse nor the children.

(2) Keeping a healthy perception of the truth of surrounding circumstances and do not be influenced by gossip and wrong attitudes. Fellowship with faith-filled Christian friends.

(3) Ensuring that the whole family continues to read the Bible, pray and worship together so that they understand the way to achieving the family’s aim of health, happiness and prosperity is not through power struggles of right and wrong, not through perfectionism but through humble acceptance to the sovereign will of God in their lives.

Through the daily confession of sins and repenting of unforgiveness to God, each family member will align himself/herself in the proper relationship with God. Unforgiveness over past wrongs is the greatest seed for bitterness and conflict in relationship. Unroot that seed each day with the seed of goodness.

The Shakespearean View of Humanity

We live in interesting times where economic waves, technological waves and political waves change the landscape of our world. However, it is essential for us to step back, each day, from the hustle and bustle of this volatile world and reflect on the nature of our humanity.

The questions which have come up for myself in recent days are as follows:

1. Our trust in man: How much can we put our trust in ourselves, let alone leaders in government, politics or in our religious communities? Do we need others to hold us accountable just as a government needs a judiciary and a viable opposition party for checks and balances?

2. What are our ideals and values ? What do we really stand for and what are we willing to sacrifice our bread and butter for? Do we care for cleanliness, transparency and honesty? Are these values positive externalities which benefit everyone? How realistic are our ideals and are there loopholes for us to make irreparable errors?

3. Where is God in the midst of our lives? Do we put God in the driver's seat or the passenger's seat? Is He a partner writing the book of our destinies or are we dictating to Him what we wish our lives to be?

Now that the nation's eyes are on 16th September or 20th September for a political tsunami, there is the rising concern whether this will be a peaceful or chaotic transfer of power in view of the incumbent government's recent crackdown on certain opposition figures (MP Teresa Kok who was released after one week in jail and blogger Raja Petra).

The answer to this political issue very much depends on how we answer the three questions above.

The poet and playwright William Shakespeare was right in his assessment of man's nature, which is driven by wild storms of greed, lust, hate and fear.

This is why we should not trust in anyone except in God (answer to 1). We should also check that our ideals are based on change in the spiritual man within rather than in the external circumstances (answer to 2). And finally, as the Bible said, put first the Kingdom of God, and all this will be granted to you (answer to 3).

Hamlet's philosophical question "To be or not to be" can be wisely settled by allowing the Holy Spirit to dwell in us and to be Christ-like in all his living fullness. Then, we need not choose whether to remain as our petty selves or be completely a pawn of circumstance. Hamlet was not the average man who could compromise between these two extremes. He was brave enough to see that, in a world where man puts faith in himself, we can either be one type or the other type: A man of action or a man of inaction. And therein lies the tragedy of Hamlet, who decided to "take arms against a sea of troubles" rather than nobly suffering "the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune."

In fact, the greatest freedom is having the freedom of mind to be jolted by the tragic consequences of our sinful human nature, and as a result of this shock to our system, allowing God to mould our hearts and transform us completely.

Hamlet, Prince of Denmark (Act 3, Scene 2):

To be or not to be, that is the question;
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing, end them. To die, to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to — 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep;
To sleep, perchance to dream. Ay, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life,
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
Th'oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely (scorn),
The pangs of despised love, the law's delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th'unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin (dagger)? who would fardels (burdens) bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.

The Economic Push For Political Change in Malaysia

Malaysians are more rational than we normally give them credit for. There is a new wave of political change that is sweeping through this country and this change is driven by forces that go beyond the mere frustrations of citizens with corruption and poor governance.

If there is just one powerful idea that has strong economic and social benefits for Malaysia and which has been the key to the electoral success of Pakatan Rakyat, it is the idea of removing racial discrimination in employment and business opportunities for all citizens, regardless of race.

Why is this solution to Malaysia's economic and social problems so powerful, rational and academically justified?

For many Malaysians (see a recent government-commissioned poll), it is almost intuitive and common sense to accept that equal opportunities and market incentives for all will bring more economic prosperity for the country than the costs of carrying out this liberalised policy.

The difference between the situation 5 years ago and today in 2008 is that more and more citizens across the racial and class divides are becoming convinced of this solution. The voting outcomes of the GE of 8 March and the by-election of 26 August in Permatang Pauh testify to this wave of public opinion that is in favour of economic and political change. Intelligent voters have made their voices loud and clear that they want a drastic change in vision for the nation!

With Malaysia becoming a net oil importer by 2014 and the coming global economic storm, how can an outdated economic model like ours continue to thrive? I suppose we can still depend on oil export revenues before it runs out and low value-added manufacturing exports for the next five years. But honestly, what can Malaysia offer to the global economy dominated by new giants such as China, India and Russia? Palm oil and biodiesel?

Rational Racism

For me, as a practising offshore economist, I have found further confirmation of the urgent need for Malaysia to change its race-based politics and race-based economics policies. It was found when I read Tim Harford's book "The Logic of Life." Chapter 6, The Dangers of Rational Racism, in particular, talks about rational racism as found in America.

Supported by class room experiments and statistics, Harford explains that racism practised by American employers in their recuitment process against African Americans is quite rational because it saves employers time and trouble to treat African Americans as "part of a group that's known to be educationally struggling, rather than taking a closer look at their individual qualities."

The interesting part of the chapter that resonates on Malaysia is when he cites the work of University Chicago economist and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, who wrote The Economics of Discrimination. Becker found that while discrimination hurt the incomes of both the employer and unemployed, the extent of economic damage for the country as a whole depended on the size of the minority group relative to the majority group.

In America, 12% of the population consists of African Americans or blacks while the rest are mostly white. Even a moderate amount of discrimination against blacks by white employers diminishes the economic well-being of the blacks while the white majority do not suffer much economic collateral. Competitive pressures could take a long time to favour white employers who are colour blind in their employment practices.

However, Becker points out that in a different racial structure such as South Africa, where the blacks who formed 80% of the population, were ruthlessly discriminated against under the Apartheid regime, the practice of race-based economic policies caused major economic underperformance for the country as a whole.

Now coming back to Malaysia, where the minority group forms a whopping 40% of the population, it is clear that the impact of the removal of race-based economic policies will have tremendous economic benefits for the whole country. Currently, employment policies that maintain certain race-based quotas have interfered with the efficient system of market incentives. Moreover, this inefficiency (or misallocation of human capital) is magnified in non- profit maximising organisations like the civil service and most government-linked companies where the racial profile of employees are disproportionately represented.

Prognosis: There are two types of economic leakages in the Malaysian labour market arising from the current race-based economic policies. First, there is a brain drain of professionals (both non-Malays and Malays) who have left the country to earn higher salaries overseas. Many of these people have either migrated or are permanent residents in their host countries.

Second, there is the economic leakage caused by low morale in the workforce as workers are not motivated to compete with the best and the brightest peers (locally and globally). It also does not help that foreign multinational companies perceive Malaysian workers to have generally suppressed their own productivity through low self-confidence.

Conclusion: Given the challenging economic environment that Malaysia finds itself, I think the time is already overdue for race-based economic policies to be dismantled so that the labour force gets a breath of fresh air and free market incentives are provided for each and everyone to compete with the best brains and the most hard-working peers. (In fact, Becker's hypothesis was that free markets, through the profit maximizing incentive, are the best way to combat racism and bigotry).

Rational racism is no longer rational when the minority group is 40% of the population. The economic wealth generated from meritocratic labour and capital policies will be large enough for all Malaysians to share for many years to come. Not least because foreign investment capital (which seeks the highest returns at the lowest costs) will come to invest in a more vigorous and motivated Malaysian workforce.

P.S. The problem with labour economics is that changes in policies take time to reap positive results in terms of higher productivity and wages. This is why Pakatan Rakyat, which has a mandate to change labour laws, should continue to be a viable alternative government. This will put political pressure on the incumbent policy makers to push through economic reforms or else be replaced by a more efficient government. However, the real pressure for reform is not political but economic as higher inflation of 5-6% in 2009 will reduce the purchasing power of wage earners.

The Next Strategic Move For Pakatan Rakyat

After winning with a crucial two thirds majority of the votes in Permatang Pauh, the next hurdle for Pakatan Rakyat will be the biggest. Anwar should focus on strategy and not be sidetracked by the tactical warfare waged on the sodomy allegations. If Anwar is to engineer a convincing crossover of MPs on 16 Sept, he has to provide a strategic catch: a public ultimatum for Barisan component MPs to either stay put or cross over.

PR should challenge UMNO/BN to review the religious conversion laws, revamp the NEP, eradicate corruption and race-based politics all at one go by a fixed deadline, say 10 September or any date. Once the deadline passes with no change in policies by the incumbent government, this will be a strong signal to the BN component parties, the reformers in UMNO and the rakyat that the leaders of BN have not wakened up to the new political landscape. As such, all BN component parties and UMNO reformists (see Karim Raslan's post-election analysis of the Permatang Pauh tsunami) should leave and form their own independent, multiracial parties or join PR.

This is what I call a moral, ethical cross-over. Even if he has the numbers, Anwar's current tactic of secret negotiations may raise doubts about the integrity of the party hoppers.

However, BN and UMNO will fail even more if they maintain their current policies. Second attempts to bring PAS into its fold will be an old trick that no longer works on the rakyat much less on the rural Malays such as those in Permatang Pauh who voted for real change.

In the meantime, the reformers in Pakatan Rakyat should not sit on their laurels but instead work day and night on hammering out a common platform of policies which enshrine the well-being of all Malaysian families as its guiding principle. This Middle Third Way will be an intelligent compromise between theocratic and socialistic policies on the one hand and the self-serving, oligopolistic policies of BN. If PR does not find a common platform to unify the coalition, then other parties may get a headstart.

Once investors, both foreign and local, see that the economic implications of a family-oriented political agenda is based on sound economic principles, they will be more receptive to the new direction in local politics. Welcome to a new era of free and democratic competition in Malaysian politics!

P.S. Here is a hint of the five issues that are highly valued among Malaysians :

(1) The family;

(2) The hopes of young people;

(3) An environment of tolerant religious worship based on the free will of the individual;

(4) Long lasting economic prosperity and equal opportunities for all and

(5) Truthfullness and accountability.

If you can't expect your government to tell you the truth at all times, how can you expect your child to grow to be a truthful person?

Russia's Military Intentions & The Kings of The East

Russia's rapid invasion of Georgia on 8 August and subsequent ceasefire brokered by the French President has been commented on briefly by the Malaysian media. But there are worrying signs of a bigger war ahead which has implications on Malaysia's political trends.

I think the one sided "war" reflects more than an issue of national sovereignty versus independence in Central Asia, it marks the coming of the kings of the East, namely the new Russsian Tzar Vladimir Putin and his secret alliance with Eastern and Middle Easter nations. While the whole world was watching the Beijing Olympics, America and NATO was caught surprised by this war breaking out just before the majestic opening ceremony.

When I saw the Russian tanks roll into Georgia on CNN, the questions on my mind were: "Is this the Ezekial war?", "Will there be a third world war in the next five to ten years?"

In the book of Daniel in the bible, there is a prophecy about a future war between the King of the North and the King of the South. Many bible students have tried to identify who are these two warring nations.

Given present circumstances, I think the next geopolitical war could be between an American-NATO alliance versus a Russian-Chinese-Iran alliance sparked by an oil and food crisis. It has the makings of the the beginning of WWIII. Russia and China are building up their military capabilities to challenge America's military dominance of the world.

In Ezekial 38, the prophet Ezekial speaks about a war that is started by the invasion by Gog and Magog (Russia and another country/alliance of nations) of Israel from the north.

I think the invader/aggressor in the Ezekial war will be punished with defeat or neutralised. Consequently, the outcome could be a severe weakening of military resources on both sides. As both the U.S. and Russia become weak and the world is disillusioned by war, a new global body will emerge, perhaps a form of one world government comprising 10 national groupings. A world leader who appears to be a peacemaker will lead this government and then, after three and half years of ensuring peace in the Middle East, he will show his true colours and launch a final assault against Jerusalem.

The good news is: people throughout the world are finding spiritual salvation from accepting Jesus in their lives even in Iran, Palestine and Israel. The hatred of nations against one small nation's right to coexist with others will finally bring God into the battle.

Two questions:

1. How will Malaysia play a role in the current geopolitics of a new cold war between Russia and America? If either Anwar, Najib or Badawi compete among themselves to take a more prominent stand for or against Russia's new military aggression, then we can see where the nation is heading in the endtimes.

2. Similarly for U.S. politics, Barack Obama may have to prove to the world and the U.S. public that he is a strong global leader who can stand up to Putin. If not, John Mc Cain is the only hope for the world in a new cold war. This new cold war may be more devastating as it appears not to be between just Russia and America but between a coalition of nations. And, I believe, oil will be a key element in the coming conflict.