Turbulence of 2018: Prelude To A Perfect Storm & The Trump Enigma

The speed with which 2018 has transpired is breath-taking. So many trials and confusion have marked this year along with the brief victories and tranquil moments.

It is as if Time has been compressed and the events that normally takes two years to arise are squeezed into one year.

What can one say about 2018: the self-crowning of the Eastern Emperor, the trade war between the two largest economies in the world and the descent into political and social anarchy in the streets of Paris and the corridors of the British Parliament.

Meanwhile, against this backdrop is the media attention on the controversial figure of President Donald Trump whose tweets and grand gestures have provoked mockery, consternation and jitters in world markets.

Led by the emerging markets, world stock markets have all retreated after the brief bull run of 2017.

What next in 2019? Are we heading into a perfect storm of economic, political and social denouement? Or will there be an anchor of stability from an act of goodwill and wisdom on the part of leaders?

Many are blaming the unpredictable American President for the world's turbulence. There are three possible scenarios regarding the Trump factor:

(1) The Opportunist: He is merely an opportunist taking advantage of the social and economic discontent with globalisation and the concentration of wealth to the top 1%, of whom he is a member.

(2) The Maverick Game Changer: Trump is the real deal who has come to drain the swamp of Washington's and the globalists corrupt order. He will bring back economic prosperity to middle-class Americans and create jobs for the bottom 40%. In international affairs, he will rationalise America's role by taking a less prominent part in financing military engagements in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Nato, etc.

(3) The Fall Guy: This is the most dangerous scenario as Trump has been set up to be the fall guy who will trigger the economic collapse of the U.S. in a contrived Hegelian conflict with the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell who will be adamantly committed to raising interest rates, thereby unraveling a debt crisis in the U.S. and global financial markets.

In the domestic political sphere, Trump will create more political and cultural divisions between the the so-called Christian Right vs the Liberal Left, the nationalists vs the immigration friendly globalists, between the whites and the coloreds, etc.

These divisions will play on the tribalistic instincts of humanity and will rarely be analysed nor debated with any intellectual depth.

Based on these 3 scenarios and after two years of the controversial US Presidency, it is indeed time for us, world citizens, to take a deep breath and consider which scenario is likely to turn out to be the most likely. 

I have few doubts that the roller coaster ride that we went through in 2018 is likely to be even more fast-paced, sudden and dramatic in 2019.

There is an uneasy feeling that the Trump factor is the Fall Guy scenario as the intellectual discourse about this man are so polarised and superficial that we may totally miss the mark on his true agenda. 

Lastly, one FB post discussing whether Trump is the real deal or not, goes straight to his personal beliefs or value system:

"The test of the truthfulness of a man (or any woman) is the genuine foundation of his personal values. Not in the outward expressions of his words, actions or policies in the case of an elected leader.

One example: President Trump is clearly not a Christian as he does not believe in the original sin of man and the redemptive power of repentance when a person becomes a Christian.

In other words, he is riding on waves of different interest groups (Christian vs liberals) to justify his policies.Why not explain the secular basis for immigration control, for the protracted trade war with China, for the peace deals with North Korea's anti-Christian regime?

Conclusion: his lack of universal appeal and folksy American patriotism makes him out to be a semi-real deal. Few people can suss out let alone predict a man whose common trait is his consistent unpredictability."

White Board Nation

Malaysians, in all walks of life, have a

chance to rewrite their dreams, hopes and ideas in the formation of their destinies and their children's future.

This rare window of opportunity, afforded by the democratic change in the government on 9th May 2018, will give us a chance to not repeat our past mistakes but to resolve old problems with a new focus, a new perspective.

In this sense, we are now, within the first year of the new government, a white board nation on which we can draw the plan for a new destiny, a new future that will be socially, economically and spiritually fulfilling for all Malaysians (across all races, all income groups).

Imagine a huge white board viewable on our hand phone devices. It is just a tool of friendly discussion, of mature debate and brainstorming. It is an open board for all citizens to see, exchange and share ideas.

Nonetheless, there are 4 guiding principles in drafting our deepest wishes for Malaysia Baru.

1. We must keep the fire burning in our bellies.

Never cease to be excited about the new future and do not allow the cynical old voice to come back and cloud our optimism. (We may feel the honeymoon is over after 3 months but it is essential to continue being inspired and excited. Fear and inferiority complex may resurface so we have to keep these emotions at bay in our daily lives).

As an example, when we encounter alarming posts such as this: "We now has a race who believe they are the owner of the country where other races (including the indigenous) needs to kowtow to, while other races who are minority felt being suppressed and bullied in the land they called home."

KEEP your emotions in check. Whether or not the above comment applies to political instigators themselves or their party members, we should tactfully refute it and look at the bright side of mankind. Reinforcing stereotypes or certain traits can only worsen race relations.

2. We must have the final end in view.

As Shakespeare wrote: "All's well that ends well." The end is to be a nation that is harmonious and united despite the differences in race and faiths. (Labels may be symbolic but we know how to treasure and respect each other quietly).

Most important, we must learn to engage with people of different parties, different races to share with them our fears, hopes and dreams.

The enemy within is not a person or group of persons. (They will pay the price according to the law). Rather the enemy within is greed for wealth and power. Clearly, we need to be a wealthy nation but through hard work, not through wealth transfers or unaccounted for donations.

3. Find Sovereign Solutions.

We must find our own solutions and put our nation's sovereign well-being first before any other interest.

Given the corruption and geopolitical dynamics of the present international order, we have even more reason to not be swayed or coerced into complying or conforming with any global agreement.

4. Integrity and a clean goverment must be upheld.

Our nation has just avoided the fate of a typical banana kleptocractic state by voting out a  party that was plagued with historic corruption scandals.

So ethics and transparency are paramount. (Of course, this doesnt mean running an austerity budget or paying peanuts to civil servants. Talent must be attracted to contribute to making this nation dynamic and highly productive).

In a world of deceit and intrigue, we need to be as cunning and street smart, if not more than the perpetrators of the international and national fraud, the 1MDB heist.

Implicit in the white board analogy, we have wiped out all the baggage and tragedies of the past (especially the past decade) and we start afresh with a clean board to draft our new future.