The year 2009 began with a crucial war (Israel-Hamas Palestine) while the whole world is focused on the global and financial economic crisis. The surprise for the year ahead may be a major political event linked to the Israel-Palestine crisis while the economic arena may take a back seat with a boring but predictable recession hitting most developed nations.The same reversal of human expectations occurred at the start of 2008. People were worried about the subprime crisis but not too worried to cash out all their investments. The US election took centre stage and ended predictably with Obama's win against mediocre contenders. However, the financial markets saw a blow-out with the biggest losses since the 1930s Depression.
Same thing happened in Malaysia with the country suddenly turning its attention on the political tsunami post the March 2008 election. People, including myself, were transfixed by Anwar's takeover attempts and counter-tactics by BN. Then, the unexpected crash came in September after the Beijing Olympics.
This year, what most investors are worried about may turn out to be less severe than their worst scenarios. However, global political developments may shape up to be a major Black Swan event, unpredictable and having a major impact on financial markets.
These are my thoughts which I will continue to pursue. So if you wish to see ahead, don't look in the rear view mirror (a tumultuous 2008) but look ahead and above the skies for a different kind of tsunami.
1 comment:
By Nicholas Taleb's definition, a Black Swan event is unpredictable. So it is impossible to be able to predict an unpredictable event since nobody can expect it happening or measure its impact.
However, your method of taking a contrarian shift in consensus focus could be right. What we worry about the least is likely to hit us out of the blue.
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