We can unravel the enemy’s plans and bind their feet before they take further action by praying for God’s divine intervention.
The Voice of Truth is a voice that speaks for the voiceless, the weak, the oppressed, the lost. The Voice of Reason is a voice that appeals to wisdom, good faith and conscience. Jeremiah 30:3 "The days are coming when I will restore the fortunes of My people."
Sunday, June 29, 2008
How to Prepare for The Next Crisis
We can unravel the enemy’s plans and bind their feet before they take further action by praying for God’s divine intervention.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Be Careful What You Wish For
How should Malaysians, including the blogging community, respond to the current times of political change, shocking statutory declarations and social discontent with the current establishment?Monday, June 23, 2008
The Good, The Ugly and The Bad Kinds of Inflation
We all know that the inflation rate that we experience with our wallets is far higher than the official inflation rate, which rose from 2% in 2007 to 3% in the first five months of 2008 and 3.8% in May alone.Economists know that the national inflation rate is an average inflation rate based on the average spending pattern of an average citizen, who is actually just a statistical entity.
To come up with a more realistic and transparent CPI index, I propose that the government adopt the following measures:
1. An urban inflation rate be measured and disclosed versus a rural/small town inflation rate. We all know that a bowl of noodle costs much less in a small town like Sibu than in PJ/KL.
2. That the government updates the consumer survey on which the CPI is based and which may no longer be relevant because the last survey was done years ago.
3. That the government reveals how much of the average cost of food for the consumer is imported so that we know whether a stronger Ringgit will help to keep a cap on imported inflation.
4. That the government and Bank Negara educate the public about the linkage between cost-push inflation and demand-push inflation. BN always say the two types of inflation are different but the truth is that cost-push can lead to demand-pull when expectations are anchored that food and oil prices will continue to rise. The worst type of inflation is galloping inflation caused by the people's diminishing faith in the Ringgit.
5. That the real reason for rising inflation (not the national average CPI) is partly because there is excess money in the system created by a managed currency policy. 101 Economics tells you that too much money chasing after too few goods leads to higher prices. Hence, letting the Ringgit appreciate will curb money creation and dampen inflation.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Don't Let PAS Frame The Religious Debate
Ideally, in any healthy democratic country, state and religion should be kept separate and this is enshrined in our constitution where we allow for the freedom of religious worship and belief. By implication, even atheists who believe in a materialistic world have a right to their beliefs as long as they do not harm others and themselves.For the PAS youth leader to proclaim and presume that all Muslims subscribe to hudud laws is similar to the situation where, for instance, the Catholics in Malaysia were to make it a law that all Christians, including Prostestants like myself, wear the cross. While I am sure any power-wielding Catholic party is not so foolish as to do such a thing, I am using this as an example to show the tremendous problems of making religious values into laws for everyone. (Another example would be for an elected Christian sect leader to make it a law that all Christians can only worship on Saturdays).
Friday, June 13, 2008
Malaysia's Biggest Long Term Economic Problem Comes Home To Roost
In macroeconomics under the reknown Solow growth model, the standard of living in a country is dependent on the productivity of her people. And productivity is dependent on how much wealth we can generate from three things: (1) people, (2) capital and (3) land. Friday, June 6, 2008
Welcome to the New Era of Global Inflation!
After the government made the sudden decision to raise petrol and diesel prices with effect from 5 June 2008, Malaysians will be quickly entering a new era of globalised inflation ranging from between 5-7% per annum in the next one year. Is this good or bad after years of enjoying the shelter of government subsidies (basically our own money)?Well it depends. Most sensible bloggers and economists are correct in concuring that a fuel price hike is necessary and will enhance the efficiency of the economy. We have lived under the shelter of excessive subsidies for too long and need to adjust our consumption habits. However, the whole debate about the fuel price hike of 41% to RM2.70/litre plus the efforts to provide a rebate needs to be simplified into 4 issues:
(1) The quantum of the increase is a shock to consumers and companies' pockets and this 41% hike in the fuel bill has never ever happened before in Malaysia's history. Who knows whether we will enter into a steep economic slowdown while most of our trading partners in the US , Europe and Japan are now going through economic stagnation? Is the government and the central bank so confident that they can fine-tune the economy after this shock treatment?
(2) About RM7.5billion or 55% of the savings from the government's reduced subsidy is given back to the people who are apparently car and motorbike owning lower income groups. So in a way, this is a form of income distributive policy by taking the subsidy previously enjoyed by both rich and lower income groups to give to the lower income car owners. But distinguishing the income groups by the capacity of their car engines is a questionable policy. Can't a car owner with > 2000 cc buy cars of 2000 cc and below and be entitled to the rebate. Anyway, the RM625 is not sufficient to cushion the higher cost of fuel.
(3) Is the government really short of cash when out of the estimated RM53 billion of subsidy (without fuel hikes), its actual direct subsidy is less than RM20 billion.
(4) Instead of using the other 45% of RM13.7 billion to subsidise food, why not improve the public transport system and lower the import duties on cars so that our standard and quality of living will be on par with Thailand and Indonesia where the prices of cars are much lower? Alternatively, build a wider and more efficient rapid train system similar to Singapore's.
Aside from the issue of leakages through inefficient spending, these issues will probably be played up by the Opposition, which incidentally, has suddenly made a U turn on their position on petrol prices. (anyone remember them harping about using Petronas profits to reduce petrol prices before the elections?)
Let's see whether the political backlash will lead to some solid debates in parliament and eventually more efficient use of resources.
For those who hope that oil prices will come down below US$130 per barrel, I think that hope is skating on thin ice. World demand for oil is running at 87 million barrels a day while supply is only 85 million barrels a day. It's basically a supply and demand mismatch and the reserves are been drawn down to meet the excess demand from the emerging middleclass in China, India, etc. Welcome to a new era of economic realities and all eyes are now on what Bank Negara's governor will do with interest rates.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Who Needs A Powerful PM When The Rakyat Has The Bargaining Chip?
After 22 years of a government led by a powerful and domineering prime minister, Malaysia, under the present PM's fractious tenure, has at last entered the age of maturity with the citizens (Rakyat) having a greater say in the government of this country. (Notwithstanding the fact that Ahmad Abdullah Badawi needed a wake-up call to walk the talk of reform). But now that the Rakyat, through the ballot box, has elected more elected representatives in Parliament who will protect their rights and their interests, do we really need another powerful prime minister (whether from the incumbent Barisan Nasional or from Pakatan Rakyat) in office?
Once the political system and the judiciary are cleaned up and reformed to become more transparent and accountable institutions, what we need are fairly intelligent, wise and responsible leaders who are able to steer the country out of the past and into a new future based on mutual respect and shared goals.
The new status quo after the 12th landmark elections is not political instability (contrary to FT's John Burton's article "Malaysia's Era of Political Stability Ends"). Neither is it whether Najib, Tengku Razaleigh or Anwar will be the next PM. The new status quo which every Malaysian citizen has to realise is that Malaysia today no longer needs a strongman to lead her when there is a God that cares for her people. In fact, the emergence of another powerful leader who steamrolls his way through the wishes of the citizens will be an unmitigated disaster, leading to more resistence from the Rakyat and ultimately real political turmoil.
Without putting hope in powerful and supreme leaders, we only have our goodwill, faith and intelligence to guide us. May William Shakespeare's prayer be fulfilled each day: "God shall be my hope, my stay, my guide, and lantern to my feet."
* Read Karim Raslan's article "Ceritalah: Christians in Malaysia"
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Redemptive Message of 'The Kite Runner'
Rarely do I come across a film that is emotionally and intellectually moving, interweaved with the joys, the shadows and the turning points of childhood. The Kite Runner, directed by Marc Foster and based on Khaled Hosseini’s famous first novel is one of those rare films that works on our minds and hearts without pretensions.At a different level, the story has enormous depth in the echoes and parallels to the family history of Abraham-Sara-Isaac on the one hand and Hagar-Ishmael on the other hand. In fact, (for those who have seen the film or read the book), I believe there is a redemptive meaning of this story for the present geopolitical Judaeo-Muslim conflict. Every political problem comes from an inner family conflict and every relational family conflict stems from a spiritual problem.
The Kite Runner is a story that hints at a spiritual drama behind the complex family history of the father Baba having a child – Hassan - with his servant’s wife. But instead of banishing the servant’s son from his household, it is Amir, his legitimate son who deceptively banishes Hassan out of their household. The rest of the story basically tells of the redemption of Amir from his past guilt (of not helping his best friend Hassan and of falsely accusing Hassan of theft.)
This story is amazing because it could be based anywhere in the world. We may live in a peaceful and prosperous country but if we are not vigilant and spiritually strong, we too may destroyed by external forces or internal forces.
It is not a coincidence that, in the story, the invasion of Afghanistan by the Russians happened after Amir’s betrayal of his servant friend and his lying to his father. The departure of Hassan and his servant father from the Baba household is the beginning of the end of Afghanistan. Hassan, by the way, comes from the Hazara tribe, a despised minority group.
Would it be safe to say that the beginning of troubles for any nation on earth invariably starts when the rich and powerful injure and mistreat the weakest and defenseless minority? The Kite Runner starts with child-like hope which leads to a tragedy and ends with redemptive hope.
Likewise, it is my belief that our country Malaysia is close to coming to terms with her past (and present) sins and the hope of redemption is waiting at the door. A line that echoes throughout the film is "there is a way to be good again."
I highly recommend people, especially Malaysians, to see the film or read the book if not for the sheer enjoyment of a well-written, political-family thriller.
Monday, May 19, 2008
The Swing Factor That Tipped The 12th Election
In the wake of the 8 March 2008 General Elections (GE), we asked a prominent Singapore political analyst what was the one main factor that pushed Malaysians to vote for the Opposition? Was it a protest vote (push factor) of voting against the Barisan Nasional or a pull factor of voting for the Barisan Rakyat (as the Opposition was called then)?Surprisingly, the political expert sounded as shell-shocked as everyone else. In his opinion, he said it was a combination of factors such as discontent over widespread corruption in the system, the rising crime rate, the perceived erosion of right of religious freedom, the political marginalization of the Chinese and the Indians, the NEP, Lingamgate etc.
In many ways, he was right but surely there must have been one tipping factor that tipped the 12th election outcome to swing into the Opposition with the gaining of five unprecedented states under their administration.
Until today, I am still looking for that one tipping point factor if there is one because I don’t believe people are so different that they can be motivated by a wide range of reasons.
A decision-making framework I formulated before voting has helped me to understand and clarify the reasons behind my voting decision. In fact, I wrote a piece in Malaysiakini’s letter column called “Will You Swing Your Vote?” three days before the GE.
Looking back, as a first time voter, I voted for the BR because I wished to deny the incumbent BN a two thirds majority. This is described as the Strategic Vote. In my pre-election hypothetical case study, I assumed that the average Malaysian will attach a 30% weight to the strategic vote.
If this was the key tipping point factor, then we can now better deal with the post-election issue of a potential change in the government through Pakatan Rakyat (PR) obtaining more state and parliamentary seats through “cross-overs”.
Since I did not vote for an outright change of government, why would I be in favour of the PR’s strategy to gain power through cross-overs, which is ethically questionable? My skpeticism about the timing of this formation of a new government is based on concerns that the PR party is not ready to form a unified, cohesive government with a consistent set of economic, social policies for the country.
Much of Pakatan Rakyat’s social economic objectives (apart from the debatable issue of lowering fuel prices) sounds great and the party may eventually and hopefully transform Malaysia into a more accountable, transparent and efficient country. But why the hurry in 2008? Is it because BN is imploding under its own weight? Or is it because Anwar Ibrahim is just impatient to form the next government?
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Essential Differences Between Views & Values - Part 1
How should we judge a person – by the views he holds or by the values that are dear to him? Views and opinions can be changed and are held together by a combination of intellect and emotions.We attach greater importance to values because our values are ultimately what we are willing to risk our lives for and what we are willing to go to war for (or not go to war if you are a pacifist). Values seem to appeal to our spiritual and nobler inclinations such as cherishing life and helping those in need. However, despite the distinction between values and opinions, the two are often substitutes for one another.
Opinions and views are exchanged more frequently and they are subject to improvisations, innovations, mutations and alternations. In reply to accusations of being inconsistent, the economist John Maynard Keynes famously said: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" However, values are more sticky and, hence, harder to change even if the facts no longer support the values.
For instance, many politicians still believe that subsidized pricing is an effective way of keeping inflation under control. Little do they see the fact that subsidized pricing maintained over time will distort the allocation of resources by encouraging consumers to consume more of the commodity (e.g. fuel, rice, bread) that is in limited supply.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Safe Harbour in A Turbulent World

Those who espouse and champion freedom of choice without any obligation to anchor their desires to a set of ethical values will find their element in this century.
But at the same time, this is the century of change in the widest sense of the term. There will be changes in the weather, changes in the economy, changes in international relations, changes in politics, changes in the family and most importantly, changes in the spiritual life of man.
When we choose to take the wrong path, either unknowingly or willingly, we are faced with consequences that are many times more powerful than we could imagine. Why so? The reason is quite simple. For the first time in history, we have more knowledge at our disposal, a broader range of choices to make and more demands on our limited resources and time on earth. Invariably, greater knowledge comes with greater responsibility.
Where are our hearts and minds focused on, 24 hours a day, in wakefulness and in sleep? Is it in the pursuit of happiness, the hope of wealth, the waiting for God’s provisions or the seeking of something which can fulfill the thirst in our souls? How do we know whether we have chosen the wrong path or are walking in the right one?
It is said in the Bible that to know a tree, we are to know its fruits. We know whether we have taken the right path by not only reaching the destination but also by what we experience along the way. Is it a walk of quiet joyfulness, of endurance and painstaking perseverance or is it a walk through a dark forest filled with strange entertainment, confusion, false promises, temptations and ultimately a walk to the gates of perdition?
Ultimately, do we walk with God or do we walk alone? Do we start our days with a list of what we want or ask God what He wants? Do we handle unexpected crises and challenges with what we know or what God declares in His Word? Our Lord Jesus Christ is the only security we can find who will not cheat us and whose friendship will not fade with time or age. The Holy Spirit is the boat in which we can find refuge while on earth and which will take us to safe harbour in our eternal home in heaven.
Baking A Bigger Pie for The Nation To Share Equally Among its People
Despite 50 years of race-based politics and a disastrous social economic policy (NEP), many Malaysians have still not woken up to the meaning of the political changes that we saw on 8th March 2008.There are still many Malaysians - from the highest to the lowest levels of society- talking about special privileges based on race and warning about the dangers of upsetting the status quo.
The idea that there will be political instability when one race becomes economically poorer than another in a multiracial society is filled with fallacies, especially in today's world of electronic communications and global dialogue.
First, on a matter of human principle (all men & women are created to be treated equal with equal rights), the legalisation of political and economic privileges based on race is something that the world has struggled with in the past, and we know the victors were those who favour humanity and equal rights (the fall of legitimised racism and white nationalism in South Africa, the failure of Fascism in Germany, etc).
So as a matter of principle and even as a matter of practice, the promotion of superior rights for any race, be it minority or majority, will actually lead to instability, either from the inside which happened in Malaysia, or from external forces (which is reflected in the marginalisation of Msia's economic health versus its stronger neighbours - Indonesia, Thailand, Spore etc.)
Friendly domestic competition based on mutual trust and respect will lead to a greater economic pie for everyone, regardless of race, to share. Let us all work for a real future and a vision we can all share and work against the idea that the baker will always be there to cut a bigger slice of the pie for some sections of the populace. Baking a bigger pie is always better than slicing a big portion of a cupcake.
A Truthful Speech In Parliament from Unexpected Quarters
On the morning of 30th April as I was driving to work, I prayed to God for several things to be raised during the nation's historic 12th parliamentary session: The end of corruption, the restoration of the independence of the judiciary and the removal of unjust laws that infringe on the basic rights of all law-abiding citizens.When I read the headlines in the two mainstream media the next day, I was at first sorely disappointed that the session was marred by disputes over points of order and name calling between the two parties.
Didn't God answer my prayers as He usually does? Reading further (and we need to look hard for the real news buried in the manistream media though less so with the new media), I was surprised to see that Ong Ka Ting made a terrific speech about the one of the most important issues that turned the heavens against this nation's administrators: that is the unfair subjection of non-muslims (former converts or either parents who converted) against their free will to Shariah laws versus civil laws in several cases in recent years. This was the speech I expected the Opposition to give as the most powerful attack against the government, who is ultimately responsible for the erosion of religious freedom and rights as enshrined in the constitution.
The China Conundrum: Economic Sovereignty or Digital Centralisation?
O ver years of conversations with both domestic and foreign economists, I have found that their perspectives generally coalesce into two mai...
-
Once a while I come across an interesting article that appears to be academic but actually has many serious implications. A recent Malaysiak...
-
Datuk Marina Mahathir’s blog post "Prophet Muhammad's Promise to Christians" at http://rantingsbymm.blogspot.com/ has opened u...
-
J ust as there are three kinds of leaders, there are three kinds of bloggers/writers: 1. The Rear Mirror Types: Using the analogy of drivin...