Wednesday, September 18, 2019

The Way out of Brexit Stalemate is a New Referendum on Fiscal Union

It has been my long-held view that Britain's unresolved and insufferable Brexit dilemma has been complicated by a complex maze of cultural, economic and social concerns that have essentially reflected not only a divide between euro skeptics and europhiles, but more importantly, a generational divide between the younger generations vs the baby boomers, between conservatives vs liberals, between nationalists vs globalists, between Northerners vs Southerners . 

There are essentially three things which the British parliament and government has to do to get out of this stalemate:

(1) Hold a second referendum that provides citizens with full and objective information as well as opinionated analyses (pros and cons) of the short-term and long-term costs and benefits of Brexit vs Remain. A questionnaire may be required to self-check the citizen's priorities and choices. 

(2) Include in the referendum a thorough scenario of the final political and economic implications of the Eurozone adopting a fiscal union policy whereby all fiscal decisions on spending and taxation will be centralised in Brussels. This policy is the only one that will save the Eurozone from its economic malaise given that it is a monetary union without a unified fiscal policy. In other words, there will be no longer any need for sovereign Parliaments for the members. If Britain is an EU member but still remain out of the Eurozone, does this mean it will be eventually powerless in dealing with a much stronger Federation of Europe? 

(3) After this referendum, hold a General Election for citizens to vote which is the best party or coalition of parties to lead the UK apart from the Brexit decision.

In contrast to the first referendum, this full-scale 2nd referendum will no longer be a simple binary Yes or No vote but will include a full survey questionnaire that helps citizens understand fully the political, economic and social implications before they put their decision on the polling form. These measures will hopefully result in a clearer referendum outcome that will be more decisive than the 48% Remain: 52% Leave result of the first referendum. 

Nonetheless, one of the biggest hurdles to the Brexit negotiations has been the Irish backstop and the Good Friday agreement which invalidates any border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. I think this hurdle can be resolved once all the benefits and costs (short term and long-term) of leaving or joining the EU are fully weighed in and evaluated. 





   

1 comment:

Jonas Lee said...

The response of political analysts to this Brexit plan is typical of the political myopia of many British people: voters are not philosophical idealists and Nigel Farage will have undue emotional sway over the less educated.....

Populism is a symptom of economic imbalances and it is neither right nor wrong. What is not democratic is to lose your voice and will over your own country's destiny. Unless Europeans want to live in a federation of Europe as if there is a European identity, language and religion. Europeans are as different among themselves as Asians among us.

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