Turbulence of 2018: Prelude To A Perfect Storm & The Trump Enigma

The speed with which 2018 has transpired is breath-taking. So many trials and confusion have marked this year along with the brief victories and tranquil moments.

It is as if Time has been compressed and the events that normally takes two years to arise are squeezed into one year.

What can one say about 2018: the self-crowning of the Eastern Emperor, the trade war between the two largest economies in the world and the descent into political and social anarchy in the streets of Paris and the corridors of the British Parliament.

Meanwhile, against this backdrop is the media attention on the controversial figure of President Donald Trump whose tweets and grand gestures have provoked mockery, consternation and jitters in world markets.

Led by the emerging markets, world stock markets have all retreated after the brief bull run of 2017.

What next in 2019? Are we heading into a perfect storm of economic, political and social denouement? Or will there be an anchor of stability from an act of goodwill and wisdom on the part of leaders?

Many are blaming the unpredictable American President for the world's turbulence. There are three possible scenarios regarding the Trump factor:

(1) The Opportunist: He is merely an opportunist taking advantage of the social and economic discontent with globalisation and the concentration of wealth to the top 1%, of whom he is a member.

(2) The Maverick Game Changer: Trump is the real deal who has come to drain the swamp of Washington's and the globalists corrupt order. He will bring back economic prosperity to middle-class Americans and create jobs for the bottom 40%. In international affairs, he will rationalise America's role by taking a less prominent part in financing military engagements in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Nato, etc.

(3) The Fall Guy: This is the most dangerous scenario as Trump has been set up to be the fall guy who will trigger the economic collapse of the U.S. in a contrived Hegelian conflict with the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell who will be adamantly committed to raising interest rates, thereby unraveling a debt crisis in the U.S. and global financial markets.

In the domestic political sphere, Trump will create more political and cultural divisions between the the so-called Christian Right vs the Liberal Left, the nationalists vs the immigration friendly globalists, between the whites and the coloreds, etc.

These divisions will play on the tribalistic instincts of humanity and will rarely be analysed nor debated with any intellectual depth.

Based on these 3 scenarios and after two years of the controversial US Presidency, it is indeed time for us, world citizens, to take a deep breath and consider which scenario is likely to turn out to be the most likely. 

I have few doubts that the roller coaster ride that we went through in 2018 is likely to be even more fast-paced, sudden and dramatic in 2019.

There is an uneasy feeling that the Trump factor is the Fall Guy scenario as the intellectual discourse about this man are so polarised and superficial that we may totally miss the mark on his true agenda. 

Lastly, one FB post discussing whether Trump is the real deal or not, goes straight to his personal beliefs or value system:

"The test of the truthfulness of a man (or any woman) is the genuine foundation of his personal values. Not in the outward expressions of his words, actions or policies in the case of an elected leader.

One example: President Trump is clearly not a Christian as he does not believe in the original sin of man and the redemptive power of repentance when a person becomes a Christian.

In other words, he is riding on waves of different interest groups (Christian vs liberals) to justify his policies.Why not explain the secular basis for immigration control, for the protracted trade war with China, for the peace deals with North Korea's anti-Christian regime?

Conclusion: his lack of universal appeal and folksy American patriotism makes him out to be a semi-real deal. Few people can suss out let alone predict a man whose common trait is his consistent unpredictability."

White Board Nation

Malaysians, in all walks of life, have a

chance to rewrite their dreams, hopes and ideas in the formation of their destinies and their children's future.

This rare window of opportunity, afforded by the democratic change in the government on 9th May 2018, will give us a chance to not repeat our past mistakes but to resolve old problems with a new focus, a new perspective.

In this sense, we are now, within the first year of the new government, a white board nation on which we can draw the plan for a new destiny, a new future that will be socially, economically and spiritually fulfilling for all Malaysians (across all races, all income groups).

Imagine a huge white board viewable on our hand phone devices. It is just a tool of friendly discussion, of mature debate and brainstorming. It is an open board for all citizens to see, exchange and share ideas.

Nonetheless, there are 4 guiding principles in drafting our deepest wishes for Malaysia Baru.

1. We must keep the fire burning in our bellies.

Never cease to be excited about the new future and do not allow the cynical old voice to come back and cloud our optimism. (We may feel the honeymoon is over after 3 months but it is essential to continue being inspired and excited. Fear and inferiority complex may resurface so we have to keep these emotions at bay in our daily lives).

As an example, when we encounter alarming posts such as this: "We now has a race who believe they are the owner of the country where other races (including the indigenous) needs to kowtow to, while other races who are minority felt being suppressed and bullied in the land they called home."

KEEP your emotions in check. Whether or not the above comment applies to political instigators themselves or their party members, we should tactfully refute it and look at the bright side of mankind. Reinforcing stereotypes or certain traits can only worsen race relations.

2. We must have the final end in view.

As Shakespeare wrote: "All's well that ends well." The end is to be a nation that is harmonious and united despite the differences in race and faiths. (Labels may be symbolic but we know how to treasure and respect each other quietly).

Most important, we must learn to engage with people of different parties, different races to share with them our fears, hopes and dreams.

The enemy within is not a person or group of persons. (They will pay the price according to the law). Rather the enemy within is greed for wealth and power. Clearly, we need to be a wealthy nation but through hard work, not through wealth transfers or unaccounted for donations.

3. Find Sovereign Solutions.

We must find our own solutions and put our nation's sovereign well-being first before any other interest.

Given the corruption and geopolitical dynamics of the present international order, we have even more reason to not be swayed or coerced into complying or conforming with any global agreement.

4. Integrity and a clean goverment must be upheld.

Our nation has just avoided the fate of a typical banana kleptocractic state by voting out a  party that was plagued with historic corruption scandals.

So ethics and transparency are paramount. (Of course, this doesnt mean running an austerity budget or paying peanuts to civil servants. Talent must be attracted to contribute to making this nation dynamic and highly productive).

In a world of deceit and intrigue, we need to be as cunning and street smart, if not more than the perpetrators of the international and national fraud, the 1MDB heist.

Implicit in the white board analogy, we have wiped out all the baggage and tragedies of the past (especially the past decade) and we start afresh with a clean board to draft our new future.

The New Malaysia Narrative Needs A Smart Twister

Dear Saudara Lim Guan Eng,

As a Malaysia citizen and veteran economist of regional economies, may I suggest that:

1. The Malaysian government's 2019 Budget resolve smartly the critical problem of liabilities of rm36 bil (GST refunds and corporate tax).

This huge unfunded liability, after negotiating tactfully with the creditors, should be amortised or repaid on a staggered basis so that the Federal budget is not burdened.

Thus, there is no need to raise more taxes in 2019 which invariably has a multiplier contractionary effect on the economy in various degrees.

2. Overall, the PH government must communicate clearly to the rakyat that the extraordinary inefficiency, fraud and corruption of the previous government must be dealt with in a similarly extraordinary policy that does not make the current tax payers and citizens pay the cost of BN's mistakes at one go.

3. 2019 is a very crucial year for global financial markets given the unresolved trade war and a rising US dollar. We cant afford to take an accountant's approach to solving the fiscal mess.

4. At the same time, there must be counter cyclical expansionary policies that enhance consumer and business confidence.

5. We have to review the tax system and come up with a new way of taxing property development profits so that the oversupply of office space can be reduced and discouraged. Much of the nation's resources are wasted on property development and overpriced infrastructure projects.

6. The public transport system can be improved further with the succesful MRT serving as a good model for other lines. Education resources must be invested (without being politicised) to make schools more competitive for the global market. Malaysia will be competing not only with Vietnam in manufacturing but also India in services.

7. Finally, just as the Finance Ministry has disclosed its revised government debt/GDP of 80% for 2017, it ought to show the actual budget deficit adjusted on the assumption that the GST and corporate taxes were duly refunded in prior years. Is it 3.5% or 4% versus official budget of 3%?

That way we can assess the "true and fair" condition of our fiscal finances.

8. One final thought, the rationale of the GST was to reduce corporate and personal income tax rates. Since GST is zero rated, how will tax rates be brought down to encourage investment in capital and enhance household disposable income levels?

Allow me to end with a quote from Financial Times journalist John Authers:

"The right to free speech does not give us the right to shout 'fire' in a crowded cinema; there was the risk of a fire, and we might have lit the spark by shouting about it."

The Emerging Market crisis we are facing today, burdened by higher debt levels than the 1997/98 crisis is like a crowded theatre of people (investors) waiting for a good show (vibrant economy).

You have shown the bad news of the past government's deeds. Now you must end the narrative with a creative twister. Dont let the people lose the plot much less alarm them unwisely.

Thank you for your faithful service to the rakyat and being a major part in the rebuilding of a corruption-free New Malaysia. 

May God bless our two leaders Prime Minister Tun Mahathir and the PM-in-waiting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Jeremiah Liang

One Man & One Nation Gifted With A New Name

There are certain moments in our lives

when we pose the key existential questions that confront mankind throughout the ages:

(1) Who are you?

(2) What is your purpose in life? 

The same existential questions beset nations (e.g. Malaysia after the 14th General Elections) that have undergone immense political and social changes: 

(1) What are you and how are you different from the old order that has gone? 

(2) What role do you as a nation have in the life of nations worldwide?

A typical millennial answer would be: "I am a man (or woman) and master of my destiny. Thus, the purpose of my life is to make the best of it for myself and loved ones."

In terms of nations, this response can be attributed to the ascendant nation of China that is well on its way to becoming the largest and most powerful economy in the world in the next ten years. 

But when a man/nation goes about pursuing his personal goals, a problem arises known in economics as the Fallacy of Composition: what is true for one person is not true for everyone.

In other words, every man for himself and God against all.

The other problem, which is especially acute among the younger generation and emerging nations, is that people have trouble finding themselves (stage one), they get lost along the way (stage two) and finally (stage three) they, either regain their senses or flounder into permanent decay.

(See figure below: Historical Path of Nations that shows my take on China's and Malaysia's learning curve). 

Who and what are we as individuals and as nations? Identities of culture, nationality and personal history form the exterior of a man and a nation.

Deeper inside, man is made of spirit, mind/emotion and body. For each element to function in a healthy balance, each element requires regular nourishment.

Likewise, a nation that nurtures only its material needs and succeeds in becoming economically prosperous usually encounters problems of inequality, economic imbalances and intellectual malaise rooted in spiritual undernourishment.

In this regard, China is a great case study of how a nation recovers from a traumatic history and positions itself into a global economic powerhouse.

But despite its successful model of development, it remains a communist and centrally planned one party state which has in recent years retreated in political reforms.

The sacrosanct right of a man and woman to believe and freely practice their faiths can not and should not ever be infringed.

The more powerful and ideological a state becomes, the more malignant is its infringement of the right to free belief. Unless, through a national crisis, the state is so shaken that it gives up its need to control the political and religious lives of its citizens.

By far, the most essential is the spiritual needs of man and of a nation. When man/nation neglects spiritual guidance or violates his inner conscience (the voice of the spirit), he invariably undergoes a crystallization in mind and body into a key obsession (greed, power, fame, lust, etc).

Ultimately, a greedy person becomes greed itself and loses any vestige of being made in the image of God. And a nation obsessed with national dignity and supremacy will inevitably learn the lesson of the tyrant Nimrod who built the tower of Babel.

Even the less ambitious among us fulfill what is in our very hearts. Our thoughts, emotions and actions are the fruits of the seeds planted deep within our inner selves.

In the case of Malaysia, the nation was led by a network of corrupt people who pushed the envelope of self-serving materialism, power and greed. That is until the voters kicked them out in quiet disgust.

This change occurred despite the uneven prosperity the country had experienced as a result of buoyant  commodity exports and the trickle-down economics of infrastructure spending.

But the Rubicon has indeed been crossed and whatever trade-offs between social and economic priorities, Malaysians made their voices heard at the ballot box: "Enough is enough. We cant take this corruption and kleptocracy anymore."

Yet even as the right decision to change the ruling government was made with the favour of divine providence, we are now confronted with the same question posed by new nations. 

What is Malaysia Baru? Is it a newly borned nation entering an unknown era guided by principles of clean and accountable governance?

What is this country of 32 million people made of various ethnicities and situated in the strategic corridor of trade between the east and the west (the Malacca Straits)? 

Where do we stand as a small, sovereign nation amidst the great powers of China in the north and America in the West?

The answers will come slowly but surely as we continue to be amazed and give thanks to the Almighty for this blessed nation.

It is no coincidence, that Malaysia's political breakththrough raised up one man - a former Prime Minister who, despite having somewhat of a Machiavellian persona - is wise enough to strongly assert our independence from the influences of China and America.

In the coming years, if Malaysia moves further up the learning curve of spiritual and political reform, it shall fulfil its destiny as a sovereign, democratic nation that has achieved a fine balance between inner strength and outer vulnerability.

Therein lies the mystery of Malaysia Baru: it is a mystery because the nation took six decades to finally become a mature democracy without a single shot fired or blood being shed.

But the timing could not be more perfect than to be standing up now among two empires that are battle-ready for geopolitical supremacy and, most likely, a region wide confrontation.

The Intangible Tsunami of Optimism

The smartest market economists (not including the ambiguous Moody's analysts) have once again failed to see the elephant in the room that is now called Malaysia Baru (their other failures  being wrong calls on Brexit and Trump's election).

With their typical analytical tools, they are only able to point out the fiscal and political challenges the Malaysian economy is currently facing following the "shock" victory of the Pakatan Harapan coalition party.

But what many economists fail to see is the deep change that is working its way into the psyche of a healing nation.

A nation that, for 6 decades, has suffered under the weight of the former regime's misguided policies, which in the last ten years, went from bad to worse in the hands of kleptocrats (or glorified thieves in plain words).

There are 5 intangible factors that are driving the revival in the confidence, optimism and animal spirits of Malaysians.

1. Relief from a climate of fear and freedom of expression

2. Faith in institutions

3. Restored dignity in the world at large

4. Meritocracy

5. Mandate of integrity given to the new government

Over time, whether in a period of one year or three years, these factors will inevitably impact positively on the productivity and morale of the human capital of Malaysia.

Academic research has proven that faith and trust in strong democratic institutions has enhanced the economic well-being and vitality of nations. 

The only problem is that these factors are not measurable by any economic variable. 

And because of this conundrum, economists can only deal with the short-term effects of tough fiscal reforms that are required to wean the economy from sleazy and easy money poured into bloated construction projects.

Former Khazanah chief economist Prasenjit Basu recently  shared his view on Malaysia:

"I’m maximum bullish on Malaysia. I predicted a year ago in my published research (on May 12th 2017) that Mahathir-Anwar would win the election, and reiterated that on 30th April 2018 with a forecast that PH would win 120 seats (I was 2 short!).

A new multiracial compact will remake Malaysia, attracting lots of reverse-flight capital and overseas Malaysian talent back to the country. Penang will regain its position as the IT hub of SE Asia."

Down To The River To Pray

This song is amazingly powerful whatever its origins...its a hym and an enjoinder to all the family of mankind to be saved and be baptised in the grace of the Lord Jesus. I always feel a pang in my heart when i hear those gentle words: "O mothers lets go down, why dont you go down?" My mother isnt saved but i know she will one day soon.

No Country For Old Warriors

To be a leader of a country is a monumental task not least because of the high pressure seat of power it entails.

If the leader takes a wrong turn or makes a bad decision, it will either cost him his job (as in the advanced nations) or the country ends up bearing the cost.

So we have to pray for our leaders, especially for them to receive wise counsel. Whatever views we have of them, we need to pray they will steer the ship well. If the captain steers the ship into troubled waters or gets lost, dont you think the passengers will also be lost?

Once there was a young man who was crowned king. He was asked  to make a sincere personal wish for his kingdom. He thought a while and wished for wisdom. Sure enough, his prayer was divinely granted and he became known as the wisest man who ever lived. His kingdom flourished and he wrote a book of wisdom to pass on to future generations.

In contrast, there was another king who was also blessed with great wealth and power. His wealth was so great that, one fine day, he boasted to his people he was the source of the country's riches. After that, things started to go downhill for him and he ended up losing his kingdom.

He went into hiding in the forests like a wild man and stayed there for seven years until he finally learnt his lesson.

Lesson for the Head of State:
Take stock of what you have done for your country and ask God how your scales are weighed in His sight. Have you stood up to the position granted to you by your countrymen?

Or having fallen short of God's expectations, you remain stubbornly proud and unrepentant of your mistakes?

Lesson for the Opposition leader:
Take a deep breath and look at the world at large. Are you truly sincere in offering an alternative to the ruling administration? Is your motive to truly serve the country or to fulfill your personal ends either for yourself or your group of supporters?

Have you not seen how pride and self exaltation in those who hold the reins of power has brought down kings and queens?

The eyes of God are ever-seeing and His judgment will be swift if you secretly plant seeds of discord in the night. Old warriors with cunning plans will remain in the shadows until their hearts are changed.

Lesson for the citizens: 
Pray for your leaders and your nation that wisdom, good governance and justice (in every aspect of a multi ethnic society) is restored and ingrained into the roots of your land.

Most of all, turn strongly away from your sins, both known and unknown, with a repentant heart so that God in Heaven will have mercy on you and your nation. Cry out to Him and ask Him to forgive you for allowing the nation to be besieged by unscrupulous characters.

For you were raised in this country for a time such as this. And each one of you has a hand in shaping the destiny of your nation.

A Great Year of Resonated Sound: 2018

The year 2018 is a special year of rapid transformation and resonation. So be prepared to run with it or be overtaken by a whirlwind year.

It is going to be a roller coaster of surprises in either way: a rapid acceleration in insights and wisdom or a sudden malfunction in our moral compass, leading to a crash, both spiritually and emotionally.

And for many, this will be the worst time to be ignorant of what is happening in the world today. Whether we stand as passive bystanders or make a move, we will make a difference to the course of history.

How does this happen? It is through our thoughts and the power of our words and actions that we affect/resonate the world around us.

It seems like a great battle is being prepared to start soon and the two armies: the good against the evil are lined up and battle ready.

When we declare the purposes of our very existence to the air around us, it seems that the sound of our spirit will resonate either in the good army or the evil army.

There is no middle ground between good and evil. All passive lukewarm people who have no idea what or who they are will  eventually be caught up in the coming chaos.

Already in the first two months of the year, two significant events have occurred:

- a market crash following a rise in interest rates with a new US central bank chief and
- the self-annointment of a new emperor for life following the end of China's two term rule for the President post.

Do we know what these events signify? Perhaps nothing much for now. But who knows what seeds are being planted and what strange fruit will emerge in the near future.

Watch, listen and stay in humble prayer throughout the year. And from the quiet of your meditation, resonate the sound of your life into the air. Declare your allegiance in the final battle over man's soul.

To paraphrase Charles Dickens: it is both the worst of times and the best of times, depending on where you stand.

Making Malaysia Great Again

For all Malaysians, there is a window of opportunity to get the best out of the country's 14th General Election. This will be an unusual election as the old nemesis of the Opposition party DAP is now the leader and Prime Minister designate of the Opposition alliance (Pakatan Harapan) should they win.

However, the election result is, in my view, less crucial than the communal dialogue of where our country is heading and how we manage our nation today.

This dialogue among the common citizens from across the partisan and ethnic lines has never before been more interesting. Not least because the range of issues is rich with paradoxes and scandals.

But frankly, I am not interested in the Machiavellian personalities and their actual intentions.

At this juncture of our history, the simplest key aim of any good government/party is to paraphrase another revitalised country, MAKE MALAYSIA GREAT AGAIN (MMGA). The Opposition must not be too micro focused on negatives nor get into personal mud slinging matches (like the corrupt and ineffectual Hillary Clinton in the US elections).

MMGA is not necessarily in economicl terms but wholistically in terms of love of country and serving the well being of each neighbor, rich or poor, whatever ethnic or creed. We must have that short, albeit essential dialogue. We must also have the grace to repent and forgive ourselves in our habitual bitter cursing of our pet political enemies.

That is why we must pray for God's mercy on our leaders and pray they have the wisdom to turn away from their old corrupt ways and international intrigue. Malaysia may or may not see political changes as a result of GE14 (although we pray & fast that it will).

But we must raise the bar of intellectual challenges by asking our politicians why are they so unimaginative and boring with no refreshing solutions to unite this multiracial and multi faith nation? Why?

Reform should not just be about removing key personalities from power for the leader of the Opposition is himself, apparently, cut from the same cloth. The solution is who has the bravery and sincerity to promote MMGA without getting into vicious  personality battles.

A new nation can rarely be reborned in an election. But it is possible by the power of our words, our thoughts and our faith in the living God to make this country great again! Praise the Lord Yahweh constantly during and after this GE14. Miracles will happen in this very great year of 2018, either in a slow snowball manner or a shocking acceleration of events.